The Mexican economy will not grow in 2023, as a result of the slowdown that the United States will suffer and due to the uncertainty generated by disputes in the T-MEC, warned Bank of America (BofA) Securities.
“We expect growth to slow to 0.0 percent in 2023 from 1.9 percent in 2022. Internal factors that will slow activity in Mexico are higher interest rates, still tight fiscal policy, and renewed uncertainty given the energy dispute. of the T-MEC ”, commented the financial institution in a report.
The document entitled “Zero Growth in 2023” highlights that fiscal and monetary policy are not expected to react countercyclically, that is, to help each other. Even remittances are expected to help sustain this slowdown, but they will have a marginal impact.
“Under our new forecasts, Mexico will reach pre-pandemic growth levels by the second half of 2023, but will remain well below the hypothetical level it would have if it had continued to grow at an average of two percent per year,” BofA Securities detailed. .
According to the bank’s analysis, although for 2022 the growth forecast was revised upwards to 1.9 percent, from 1.7 percent, due to better economic performance than expected, it is estimated that in the remaining quarters there will be a slowdown.
In the second quarter of the year, the Mexican economy grew at an annual rate of 1.9 percent, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi). For the Ministry of Finance, this result is a sign that the country can grow more than two percent in the remainder of 2022.
“We expect the slowdown in the United States to spread to Mexico with a delay. The main channels are likely to be a slowdown in Mexican exports and a slowdown in remittances,” BofA Securities concluded.