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Virologists assessed the neural network forecast for the peak of coronavirus on December 22 – RBK

“It is impossible to say with certainty that it will be on December 22 that there will be a peak and then a decline. We live in Europe, and in Europe now there is a rather unpleasant situation with covid. The mortality rate in the world has increased by 6%. Everything is not very good with the percentage of vaccination of the population: more than 80% of the vaccinated population is needed, “concluded Malyshev.

“We don’t make predictions this way. [с помощью нейросетей], therefore, I cannot confirm or deny the accuracy of the indicated date. It is on the conscience of the developers, ”Larisa Popovich, director of the Institute for Health Economics at the Higher School of Economics, told RBC.

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She explained that neural networks cannot account for the rapid change in many factors, such as population behavior and administrative measures, as well as the weather, the degree of freedom of movement, and the general health of people. Without such sensitive indicators, it is impossible to determine the date of the peak with an accuracy of one day, she said.

“All forecasts for covid have one thing in common – they do not come true. Except for one thing – it will continue. When there will be a peak, life will show, let’s see if the forecast for December 22 comes true, ”Popovich emphasized.

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Source: JHU, federal and regional virus headquarters

It is worth talking about a decline in incidence when it is clear what exactly is meant by a decline, the infectious disease specialist noted. In some regions, the situation with the coronavirus has stabilized, while in others the situation is worsening.

“It all depends on the situation in a particular region. I think there will be unexpected peaks and unexpected downturns in different places in Russia. And, of course, on December 22, everything will not stop at once, ”she concluded.

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