At the beginning of trading, speculators continued the profit-taking started yesterday in the afternoon, earned on the strengthening of the ruble. The oil, which has fallen to the region of $109 per barrel, is also pushing speculators to be cautious in playing for the strengthening of the ruble – oil companies form the main inflow of currency into the country. As a result, the Russian currency became cheaper by more than a percent.
At the same time, trading volumes did not increase compared to previous days. On the one hand, this suggests that exporters have not yet begun to increase the sale of foreign exchange earnings within the tax period. On the other hand, a slight weakening of the ruble today and a slowdown in its growth in recent weeks may be the result of an increase in demand for foreign currency on the part of importers who start purchasing goods through “parallel imports”. This is a good sign for the Russian economy.
The morning downward impulse of the ruble did not develop: already after the first hour of trading, the ruble began to slowly grow, together with the dollar, again striving for the level of 53, which turned the pair up yesterday. This technical support for the pair is not very strong and should be broken today.
On Monday and Tuesday, the bulk of tax payments to the budget will take place. In anticipation of this, exporters should increase the sale of foreign exchange earnings in the coming hours. Most likely, the main amount of funds needed for settlements with the budget will be accumulated today or tomorrow, and before taxes, as such, it can be placed on the money market at interest.
The Russian currency promises to meet the end of the month in the range of 50-53 rubles. per dollar.